Danger and opportunity of aluminum industry under epidemic situation
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In China, novel coronavirus pneumonia is a major event in Shanghai. Every year in July, most of the aluminum industry members will gather in the city to participate in the domestic industry exhibition, which is hosted by the reed exhibition group. The exhibition has been held for 15 years, but this year, due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the exhibition will have to be postponed to the next year. However, in order to meet the business needs and enthusiasm of the industry, on the afternoon of July 2, the Organizing Committee of aluminum industry exhibition organized an online live conference on the topic of "aluminum processing development direction and opportunities under the post epidemic situation - plate and strip" through the Internet.

At the meeting, three experts were invited to introduce and analyze the development situation and future development trend of China's aluminum industry under the influence of the epidemic situation, respectively We shared views on hot topics of the industry with more than 10000 online industry friends, and conducted online interactive Q & A discussions.

At the meeting, the literature army made a special report on the market situation and insight under the epidemic situation of China's aluminum industry, and introduced the operation of China's aluminum industry from January to May. In the first five months of this year, China's alumina output was 28.93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, of which the daily output in May was 191000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a month on month decrease of 5.3%; the output of electrolytic aluminum was 14.81 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, of which the daily output in May was 96000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a month on month decrease of 2.9%; the aluminum production was 20.95 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, of which the daily output in May was 167000 Tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% and a month on month decrease of 5.5%.

The literature army stressed that although China's macro-economy has been greatly affected by the Xinguan epidemic since this year, due to the particularity of the aluminum smelting process, aluminum production has maintained a normal growth, basically not affected by the epidemic. At the same time, as the downstream aluminum processing enterprises speed up their resumption of work and production after the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the rapid growth of domestic aluminum consumption has been effectively promoted The rapid decline of internal aluminum dominant inventory has supported the sharp rise of aluminum price, especially in the first three months of this year. Therefore, the overall benefit of aluminum smelting industry in the first half of this year is better. However, at the same time, the domestic and foreign aluminum prices have also been inverted, the import window of aluminum products has been opened, the import volume of non forged aluminum has increased significantly, and the export volume of aluminum and aluminum products has decreased. Customs statistics show that from January to May this year, China's net exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 790000 tons, of which, the net inflow of unwrought aluminum was 274000 tons.

After the epidemic, the domestic supply of raw aluminum, the trend of aluminum price, the situation of domestic consumption and export, and how to deal with the hot issues concerned by enterprises were analyzed in detail.

In terms of supply, domestic aluminum prices were generally at a high level in the first half of the year, which slowed down the pace of production reduction of high-cost aluminum plants. In addition, the accelerated release of newly built and put into production capacity, as well as the increase in imports of aluminum products and the recovery growth of recycled aluminum, led to the intensification of domestic supply surplus and increased the inventory pressure. At present, the de stocking speed has been significantly reduced, and the inventory inflection point is expected It will also appear in the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of domestic demand, the government should seize the opportunity to increase investment in construction, transportation and machinery manufacturing. It is expected that domestic aluminum consumption in the whole year will remain the same as last year. In terms of export, it is expected to face a more severe trade environment in the future. First of all, trade frictions will further expand. Coupled with the decline in the growth rate of foreign demand (which is expected to drop by 12% year-on-year), it will also increase the difficulty of export. The export situation is not optimistic. The export data of the first five months of this year shows an accelerated downward trend. At the same time, the global spread of the epidemic will also aggravate international trade frictions, making the trade order more complex. It is expected that the number of trade remedy cases will be further increased, and the politicization tendency of trade friction will be more obvious. In short, the export situation will be more severe. It is estimated that the annual export volume of aluminum products will drop by 10% - 15%. Therefore, in the future, the main force of aluminum consumption also depends on the domestic demand driven by government investment. This year's government work report proposed the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand. In the whole year, it is planned to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over last year, increase the proportion of special bonds that can be used as project capital, and 600 billion yuan of investment is arranged within the central budget. 39000 old urban residential areas have been renovated. We will support the installation of elevators, develop diversified community services such as dining and cleaning, strengthen the construction of major projects such as transportation and water conservancy, and increase the national railway construction capital by 100 billion yuan. Aluminum enterprises should seize the application demand in these fields and further strengthen the work of expanding aluminum application market. For example, in the application of structural materials, in addition to continue to expand the application of aluminum in the fields of construction and transportation, we will focus on expanding the application of packaging, aluminum alloy furniture and urban public use in the field of people's livelihood. In the application of functional materials, in addition to continue to expand the application of aluminum in the field of conductivity and heat conduction, the application of aluminum air power generation system in emergency power supply of base station is mainly promoted in recent years.

Updated:2020-07-22 | Return
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